Inconsistencies in Paul Hillsdon’s “Transit for Tomorrow” LRT plan
- Reality Check
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- March 17, 2012
We are unable to ignore numerous inconsistencies in the “Transit for Tomorrow” plan created by Civic Surrey website owner Paul Hillsdon.
The plan, which called for building light rail transit in Surrey and Langley, also called for redirecting $1.1 billion in funding for SkyTrain expansion to his plan instead. However, our analysis finds that Hillsdon makes a serious mistake in his capital cost estimations for light rail.
Background
Back in 2008, Paul Hillsdon ran as an independent candidate for Surrey City Council, drawing attention to the fact that he was 18 when he ran for election. The centrepiece of his platform was “Transit for Tomorrow”, a plan to redirect $1.1 billion in provincial funding earmarked for the first 6 kilometres of SkyTrain expansion in Surrey to a light rail system that he suggests could be significantly longer.
Although Hillsdon was not elected to Council, his efforts to put light rail on the map were recognized by the City of Surrey and Mayor Dianne Watts, who have since adopted light rail as the preferred mode for rapid transit over expansion of the SkyTrain system.
The proposed lines in his plan were as follows:
- King George LRT Line (King George Boulevard, 104 Avenue) — 10.2 km for $275.4 million (electric)
- 200th LRT Line (north-south on 200 Street in Langley) — 7 km for $189 million (electric)
- Interurban LRT Line (Scott Road Station to Langley City) — 26.34 km for $605.82 million (diesel)
Cost estimates did not account for street reconstruction
We have frequently pointed out that it is inaccurate to use cost estimates TransLink previously prepared for the BCER Interurban corridor to describe those of street-running LRTs, as those cost estimates were based largely on reusing the pre-existing right-of-way and tracks, and don’t consider the significant cost of rebuilding an arterial road right-of-way to accommodate brand new LRT train tracks.
Unfortunately, Hillsdon has made the mistake of using the interurban report cost estimates for his two street-running LRTs (the King George and 200th LRT lines), meaning that the costs for these LRT lines have been wildly under-estimated.
FURTHERMORE: according to the same DRL report, the cost estimate is based on the assumption that only enough trains are bought to run a basic service every 15 minutes—which is less frequent than current South of Fraser bus services along major corridors (the 320, 321 and 502 buses all maintain more frequent 5-10 minute frequencies in peak periods).
This is also below TransLink’s current goal stated in the Surrey Rapid Transit Study, of having a 5-minute frequency on any rapid transit.
What would Hillsdon's "Transit for Tomorrow" plan actually cost?
TransLink actually recently estimated the cost for light rail on an alignment comparable to Hillsdon’s “King George Line” to be $800 million ([14]), or about $78.4 million per km. The costs for the “LRT4” line include the significant costs for street modification (including intersection rebuilding and utilities relocation costs) that Hillsdon excluded, and are more than twice as much as his cost estimates.
So, to provide a more reasonable picture of what Transit for Tomorrow would cost, we’ve prepared a cost estimate for the King George and 200th lines based on TransLink’s current cost estimates. We have also modified the Interurban Line to use the DRL report cost estimate for an electric light rail system rather than a diesel one, and with costs added to procure enough trains for a minimum 5-minute frequency.
Conclusion: a “Transit for Tomorrow” plan meeting TransLink’s standards would cost a whopping $2.39 billion, in 2010 dollars.
| Line | Km | Cost (Hillsdon TFT based on TransLink/DRL) | adjusted to 2010 $$ | Cost - our estimate (based on TransLink/SRTS, 2010 $$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| King George | 10.2 | $275.4 M | $296.62 M | $800 M |
| 200th | 7 | $189 M | $203.57 M | $549 M |
| Interurban (diesel) | 26.34 | $605.82 M | $652.51 M | - |
| Interurban (electric, 5 min freq) | 26.23 | - | - | $1.04 B |
| Total | $1.07 B | $1.15 B | $2.39 B |
Paul’s estimate: $1.15 billion
Our estimate: $2.39 billion
That’s enough money to buy SkyTrain all the way to Langley on Fraser Highway, currently estimated by TransLink at $1.95 billion; while still having plenty left over to immediately introduce rapid bus service to Guildford, Newton, and White Rock.
A common mistake
Surrey citizens should have known about this 4 years ago.
However, the confusion on rapid transit cost estimates is clearly a widespread problem. Whether it was writers for the Vancouver Sun, or the consultants commissioned by the Downtown Surrey BIA to author a study that was influential in the City of Surrey’s decision for light rail over SkyTrain, many have made the exact same mistake of using interurban corridor costs to describe more complex systems.
Paul Hillsdon didn’t do his homework, but it seems that nobody else in favour of light rail has done their homework either.
About SkyTrain for Surrey
SkyTrain for Surrey is the community organization that advocated for the Surrey-Langley SkyTrain extension. From our beginnings as a petition calling for the scrapping of a street-level LRT proposal, we grew into a community of like-minded folk, taking on various projects such as making SkyTrain an election issue in 2018 as a registered advocacy group. SkyTrain for Surrey continues to call for high-quality transit infrastructure projects serving Surrey, Delta and the Langleys.
Media Contact:
Daryl Dela Cruz – Founder, SkyTrain for Surrey
Phone: +1 604 329 3529, [email protected]