Surrey-Newton-Guildford LRT to increase transit use by less than 1%

New numbers released by TransLink and the Surrey Light Rail team have essentially confirmed that the Surrey-Newton-Guildford LRT will be the most expensive mistake in the region’s history.

For $1.65 billion, the Surrey-Newton-Guildford LRT line will buy a transit mode-share increase of just 0.6% compared to not building it at all. Surrey’s transit mode share in 2045, with SNG LRT built, is expected to be 12.4% – indicating that the automobile will continue to be Surrey’s dominant mode for transportation.

These transit mode shift numbers were among many other detailed figures listed in the finalized Environmental and Socio-Economic Review Report for the SNG LRT project, dated May 25th. The numbers in question are in Table 7.2-9, and indicate expected transit trip and mode share numbers in years 2030 (6 years after the start of LRT operations) and 2045 (21 years after the start of LRT operations). In both years, LRT produces an increase in Surrey transit use of 0.6% relative to BAU (business-as-usual).

Table 7.2-9 also indicates that the SNG LRT produces an increase of just 5.5 million annual transit trips relative to BAU in 2045 (21 years after the start of LRT operations). By comparison, the SkyTrain Canada Line – currently in its 9th year of operations – sees over 46 million annual boardings.

It should be noted that this report only lists LRT and ‘BAU’ alternatives; it does not consider other, less costly alternatives such as Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) that would likely deliver similar increases in transit mode share and transit trips, but for a fraction of the cost.